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Scenarios, inputs, assumptions, methodologies and guidelines

AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications to inform decision making including the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO strives to ensure its planning and forecasting publications are of highest quality, with data that is fit for purpose and industry-reviewed and processes that are transparent. To build confidence in the forecasts, and help decision makers understand the outcomes, AEMO consults on and publishes its scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies. If necessary, confidential information is withheld from public release, but incorporated in the modelling conducted to deliver assessments that are as accurate as possible.

The documents contained in this page provide the collection of guidelines, methodologies, scenarios and inputs considered in AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting publications. The documents may change as AEMO releases new or updates existing methodologies, inputs, scenarios or assumptions.

Consultation open on 2020 Forecasting inputs and assumptions

AEMO delivers a range of planning and forecasting publications for the National Electricity Market (NEM), including the NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP). AEMO has prepared a Consultation Paper to provide information and seek stakeholder submissions on inputs and assumptions for AEMO’s 2020 forecasting and planning publications, including:

  • Changes required to key inputs and assumptions used in AEMO’s 2019 NEM planning and forecasting publications that affect AEMO’s supply and demand forecasting models.
  • CSIRO’s latest 2019-20 GenCost draft which provides an annual update to generation technology costs.

For further details, and to engage with AEMO during this Consultation, please visit the 2020 Planning and Forecasting Consultation on scenarios, inputs and assumptions.

AEMO invites submissions on the inputs and assumptions to be used in Forecasting and Planning publications for 2020. AEMO’s timeline for this consultation is outlined below. Submissions should be made to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au. A further joint webinar with CSIRO is planned for 31 January 2020 to give stakeholders an opportunity to to discuss the GenCost 2019-20 Draft Report.

2019-20 Scenarios, inputs and assumptions

The use of scenario planning is an effective practice to manage investment and business risks when planning in a highly uncertain environment.

Scenarios form a critical aspect of AEMO’s forecasting and planning, providing the information needed to assess future risks, opportunities and development needs in the energy industry. It is vital that the dimensions of scenarios chosen cover the potential breadth of plausible futures impacting on the energy sector and capture the key uncertainties and material drivers of these possible futures in a consistent way.

AEMO has selected five scenarios, which have been developed following extensive consultation with industry, academia and consumers. They provide a suitably wide range of possible developments varying in two primary directions – the extent of decarbonisation by the energy industry, and the degree of decentralisation within the sector.

The following documents contain descriptions and details of the scenarios, and the associated inputs and assumptions to be applied in AEMO's forecasting and planning activities for 2019-20.

Archive for inputs and assumptions workbook

Forecasting and planning methodologies

The following reports and guidelines contain descriptions of the methodologies and processes applied in AEMO’s demand and energy forecasting, market modelling and power system planning.

Supporting materials

Reference materials used to support the development of the inputs and assumptions.

2019 Planning and Forecasting consultation

AEMO thanks the broad range of stakeholders from across the energy industry for their valuable contributions that helped inform the scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies summarised on this page.

The consultation paper, workshop packs and stakeholder submissions can be found on the 2019 Planning and Forecasting consultation page.

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