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2017 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data that informs the decision-making processes of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies as they assess opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year outlook period.

2017 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

The 2017 ESOO provides a projected outlook to 2026–27 of supply adequacy under a number of scenarios, including:

  • The impact of additional renewable generation in response to Australia’s federal and state renewable energy targets, and
  • Potential generation outage events that may challenge reliability of supply.

The 2017 ESOO was prepared by AEMO using information available at 7 July 2017. Information made available after this date may have been included in this publication where practical.

2017 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities - results

June 2017 Energy Supply Outlook (ESO)

The June 2017 ESO provides an integrated assessment of gas and electricity supply adequacy for eastern and south-eastern Australia over the next two years. It updates the November 2016 ESOO, the November 2016 Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP) , and the March 2017 GSOO .

Updates for these documents are required when significant new information becomes available relating to supply or demand projections. New information since the November 2016 updates to the ESOO and EAAP, and the March 2017 GSOO that have been included in ESO modelling, includes:

  • Domestic gas producers have provided updated information on their gas supply projections.
  • New generation projects have been planned for development within the next two years.
  • Pelican Point Power Station has committed to returning to full service from July 2017, adding an additional 239 megawatts (MW) of available capacity in South Australia.
  • The Queensland government’s commitment to return Swanbank E Power Station to service from the first quarter of 2018, adding an additional 385 MW of available capacity in Queensland.
  • The South Australian and Victorian governments have committed to adding 100 MW and 40 MW of battery storage respectively before summer 2017–18.
  • Queensland forecast annual consumption and peak demands have been updated in accordance with the March 2017 Update: National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR).
  • New information from generators on energy constraints for some generating units, obtained through the Generation Energy Limitations Framework (GELF) survey. 

November 2016 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) Update

The 2016 ESOO Update assesses supply adequacy across the National Electricity Market (NEM) to 2025-26, in light of announcement from Engie of the retirement of Hazelwood Power Station by 31 March 2017, and the potential impact of possible market responses.

The 2016 ESOO Update was prepared by AEMO using information available at 3 November 2016, however the impact of changes after this date have been assessed where practical.

2017 ESOO and Supporting Materials

 

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