Coal Seam Gas / Liquified Natural Gas
In late 2017, Lewis Grey Associates (LGA) provided AEMO with an updated CSG forecast, that incorporated feedback from the consortia of LNG exporters. The updated LGA forecast shows electricity consumption from the sector is forecast to increase slowly from 5,800 GWh to 7,100 GWh over the 20-year horizon under the neutral scenario.
The updated forecast is lower than the previous forecast which was used in the 2017 ESOO (by approximately 700 GWh by 2036-37). It reflects improved estimates of energy (electricity and gas) used in the process of extracting CSG, made possible now that more historical information is available since operations began. In addition, the weak scenario explored a situation where international market conditions compared to local cost of supply leads to a potentially faster decline in CSG production.
Based on the strong growth of EVs in key markets worldwide, AEMO has maintained the relatively strong growth in the forecast used for the 2017 ESOO for the first 10 years. After that, AEMO has adopted the growth rates from the 2017 Energeia forecast.
Compared to the previous forecast, EV uptake in the strong and neutral scenarios is now growing faster from 2026-27 onwards. The Neutral forecast now projects 14,500 GWh of consumption from electric vehicles by 2036-37. For the same year, the strong scenario projects 29,100 GWh, while the weak scenario has 4,100 GWh of consumption (identical to the previous forecast used). In terms of vehicle penetration, this equates to 19% of the light vehicle fleet being electric by 2036-37 in the neutral scenario, while the strong and weak scenarios reach 49% and 6% respectively that year.
Based on the updated price outlook, AEMO has reassessed large load closure risks, resulting in a lift in forecast consumption in Victoria in the Neutral scenario.