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Market Participant 5-Minute Forecast

21/12/2018
MarketOther Meetings

The Market Participant 5-Minute forecast (MP5F) is a program undertaken by AEMO and ARENA, in conjunction with forecasting service providers and wind and solar projects, to demonstrate the potential benefits of wind and solar generator self-forecasting to market and power system operation. It is anticipated that the use of dispatch self-forecasts in preference to forecasts from AWEFS and ASEFS will deliver system wide benefits, by reducing generation forecast error and providing greater autonomy to intermittent generators.

For details on this joint AEMO/ARENA initiative, visit:
https://arena.gov.au/funding/programs/advancing-renewables-program/short-term-forecasting/

Dispatch Self-Forecast Implementation Project

As part of the MP5F program, AEMO is implementing changes to its systems and procedures to allow market participants to optionally submit dispatch self-forecasts to AEMO via a web-based API, and for AEMO to use those forecasts in the dispatch process.

Market participants must register with AEMO to provide dispatch self-forecasts of the unconstrained intermittent generation from their semi-scheduled generating units for use in dispatch. See Participant Forecasting for more details.

The following table outlines the timeline for AEMO's API implementation and integration into Dispatch for this project, including indicative times for communication of design documentation and system implementations.

The MP5F Milestones document provides a detailed description of each milestone, including participant implications.

July 2018

API Design Document

Document release

Implement API in Pre-Production

System implementation

Draft criteria for Participant Forecast assessment

Document release and invitation to comment

Draft Participant Data Model design 

Document release

August 2018

Implement API in production

System implementation

September 2018 Technical Specification with Participant Data Model design Document release

November 2018

Second draft criteria for Participant Forecast assessment

Document release

December 2018 Final criteria for Participant Forecast assessment
Document release
Participant Data Model in Pre-Production System implementation
Implement Dispatch Integration and Reporting in Pre-Production System implementation
 January 2019

 

Participant Data Model in Production System implementation

Implement Dispatch Integration and Reporting in Production

System implementation

Semi-Scheduled Generation Self-Forecast - Assessment Procedure

In July 2018, AEMO invited feedback on the draft Semi-Scheduled Generation Dispatch Self-Forecast Assessment procedure.

In November 2018, AEMO considered feedback received and published a second draft of the procedure and associated draft determination.

In December 2018, AEMO considered feedback received and published the final procedure and associated final determination.

AEMO intends to follow this procedure in assessing the performance of Dispatch self-forecasts before allowing their use in 5-minute Dispatch.

AEMO intends to further engage with stakeholders during 2019 to review the effectiveness of the Self-Forecast Assessment Procedure (including metrics, benchmarks, thresholds and exclusions) after gaining sufficient experience with the use of self-forecasts in dispatch.

Please provide feedback to: op.forecasting@aemo.com.au

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